2026 season
NFL
Every pick saved this season, graded against Vegas's closing line. 1 week, 0 of 16 games final.
0–0
Against the spread · Elo + eff, math alone · no final games yet
Every week
Records are Elo + eff, math alone. Each week's sheet has every pick, when it was locked in, and the line then.
Reading the numbers
- ATS
- Our side of Vegas's closing line. If Vegas has a team −14.5 and we have them by 9.9, our side is the other team +14.5. 52.4% breaks even at standard odds.
- 3+ pts off
- Only the games where we differ from the line by 3 or more: the ones you'd actually consider.
- CLV
- Closing line value: how many points the line moved toward our side after the line we took (then moved our way–didn't move–moved against). Positive CLV over many games is the strongest sign of a real edge. At pick uses the line when the pick was saved; from open is as if we'd bet the opening line.
- Brier
- How good the win percentages were. Lower is better; 0.25 is a coin flip.