Winners: picked the team that won. Brier: how good the win percentages were; lower is better, 0.25 is a coin flip. ATS: our side of Vegas's closing line. If Vegas has a team −14.5 and we have them by 9.9, our side is the other team +14.5. 52.4% breaks even at standard odds. 3+ pts off: only games where we differ from the line by 3 or more. CLV (closing line value): how many points the line moved toward our side after the line we took, then moved our way–didn't move–moved against. Positive CLV over many games is the strongest sign of a real edge. At pick uses the line when we saved the pick; from open is as if we'd bet the opening line.
Season so far
Predictor
Winners
Brier
ATS
ATS, 3+ pts off
CLV at pick
CLV from open
Every week of the season, each game counted once at its newest saved version.
Totals (over/under)
Predictor
Avg miss
Vegas miss
O/U
O/U, 3+ pts off
CLV at pick
CLV from open
How each Claude model nudged the math
Model
Nudged
Avg nudge
Biggest
Reasons it used most
Claude's reasons, graded one at a time
Model
Reason
Used
Avg size
Moved the pick closer
Each line of a receipt on its own: did the math plus just that reason land closer to the final margin than the math alone? About half is a coin flip.